Tarot Report Card
60%+ hit rate and 20%+ average returns for the 2026 digests YTD
As of 5/14/26 market close, the YTD performance of the collective 2026 digests:
Trades: 34
Equal-weight average return: +23.3%
Winners: 21/34, or 61.8%
Average winner: +45.4%
Average loser: -12.3%
Median return: +3.3%
Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice!!! This extremely crude watchlist assumes that positions were immediately added the day following publication and obviously isn’t reflective of an actual portfolio! Please do not blindly shotgun digest names!
Also, the digests highlight companies that are just plain interesting from a corporate governance perspective and are not at all compelling from an investment standpoint—for example, nobody should actually buy SRG 0.00%↑ unless they enjoy pain.
While we can’t discount the role of the broad-based enthusiasm for the market right now (to put it lightly), the results are still a validation of the Tarot framework.
The median return is ~3.3%, so the typical trade is around breakeven while the portfolio is being pulled up by a number of very large winners. The edge is coming from asymmetric upside on a few ideas, which is a fairly common dynamic in investing—and life, for that matter.
There are obviously going to be Type 1 and Type 2 errors with any kind of speculation, but the overall record is good with clear examples of compensation aligned with broader trends or idiosyncratic drivers.
We hope you find the publication valuable—or at least interesting—as we continue to highlight interesting compensation and governance behavior.
Thank you for your support.
Now, let’s highlight some specific names.
AGL 0.00%↑ Agilon Health Inc
This idea from the Vol 7 Grants Digest published May 1st is one where we were very right very quickly, with a ~200% return from publication.
In late April, with the stock trading around $25, the board gave the incoming CEO a large equity grant effective 5/7/26 (the day of earnings) where the PSU portion would vest upon the achievement of unusually high hurdles over three years:
1/3 at $50
1/3 at $100
1/3 at $150
A massive beat and raise on earnings, and we’re now trading at $80 and change. It’s an idiosyncratic idea that worked out quite well.
To this, you might say something like, “Hey ZG, that’s cool and all, but I could buy any given semiconductor manufacturing business at any point in the past week and get the same returns with way less work.”
And you’d be right!
Go do that while I snack on my artisanal returns here in my corner.
Alright—enough pouting from me.
